A rented new-build flat in Bratislava, priced

The usual Slovak investment: buy a new 2-room flat outside the centre, in Ružinov or Petržalka, and let it. We priced one from today's listings, with every cost and tax, as 20,000 simulated futures over five years, bought with cash and with an 80% mortgage.

€10,000 of your own money in the flat: five years of paths

Bought with cash, median Middle half 1 in 20 / 19 in 20

With an 80% mortgage, median Middle half 1 in 20 / 19 in 20

Value if sold that month: price less selling costs, less the loan, plus the cash the flat has paid out (or less what you topped up), after taxnxtdev.sk NXTlab

The flat

We did not take an average from a press release. On we read every new-build 2-room listing (38–65 m², built 2015 or later, duplicates removed) in Ružinov and Petržalka on Reality.sk, the portal that shares its database with Nehnutelnosti.sk: for sale and for rent, and each listing's detail page for the energy charges. The model flat sits at the middle of both.

	For sale	Median size	Median price	Price per m²	For rent	Rent per m², no energy	Gross yield

Asking prices, not closing prices. Cross-checks: Realitná únia's September averages for newer 2-room flats are €5,402/m² in Ružinov and €4,833/m² in Petržalka; developers' price lists for Ružinov projects run €5,100–6,000/m². Rents are quoted without energy in nine listings out of ten; the tenant pays a monthly advance on top, median , which covers heating, water, the building manager and electricity.

Asking price per m², new-build 2-room flats

Number of listings in each €500 band. The end bands collect everything beyond.

RužinovPetržalka

Source: Reality.sk listings, nxtdev.sk NXTlab

Asking rent per m² a month, without energy

Number of listings in each €2 band.

RužinovPetržalka

Source: Reality.sk listings, ; rent quoted with energy has the stated energy advance taken offnxtdev.sk NXTlab

Where the rent goes

The first year, a month, for the model flat bought with cash. The owner pays the building's repair fund, insurance, property tax and upkeep; the tenant pays energy and the rest of the building's advance.

Rent in, costs out, a month

Year one, before any price changenxtdev.sk NXTlab

Flat prices since 2005

Bratislava region, NBS (series ends 2021)Slovakia, Eurostat

Source: NBS housing prices by region (€/m², 2005–2021); Eurostat house price index for Slovakia. Both rebased to 2015 = 100nxtdev.sk NXTlab

How the model works

value = price index × (1 − ageing)^years × this flat vs the index price = today × resampled past moves (unsmoothed) × (1 + trend)^years rent = today × (1 + rent growth)^years × (1 − vacancy) cash = rent − owner's costs − mortgage payment − income tax (+ interest on the cash) your €10k = (value − selling costs − loan + cash − tax on a gain) ÷ money put in × 10,000

Price indices are smoothed: a quarter's average is partly last quarter's. Measured, Bratislava flat prices moved a year; with the smoothing taken out (the Geltner correction) it is , which is what one flat sold on one day is exposed to. The resampling picks whole years from 2005–2026, so a run like 2008–2013 stays together.

Input	Value	Where it comes from

What it returns

Held for	Expected a year	Median a year	Chance of a loss	Worst 1 in 20 (total)	Best 1 in 20 (total)	Median worst fall

Five-year return a year, every path

Cash80% mortgage

After tax, per €10,000 of own moneynxtdev.sk NXTlab

The mortgage: more debt, the same expected return, a wider spread

How much to borrow: five-year return a year by loan-to-value

Expected and median, per €10,000 of own money, after tax.

ExpectedMedian

Mortgage at the base rate, 30-year term, fixed for the 5 yearsnxtdev.sk NXTlab

What the answer depends on

Each row changes one input and re-runs the 20,000 paths. Five years, after tax, a year.

Change	Cash: expected	Cash: median	Mortgage: expected	Mortgage: median	Mortgage: chance of a loss

Against the alternatives

The same €10,000 for five years, from our ETFs vs AI stocks model, where the flat now has two rows of its own.

Choice	Expected a year	Median a year	Chance of a loss	Worst 1 in 20	Median worst fall	Sharpe

Worst 1 in 20 is what the €10,000 is worth after five years. Sharpe: return above 2% cash per unit of risk.

Strong and weak sides of this model

What it gets right

Real listings, not a press average. Every new-build 2-room flat on offer in the two districts on one day, sale and rent, with the energy terms read from each listing.
Every cost and both taxes. Purchase and selling costs, furnishing, the repair fund, empty months, 19% on rent and the 5-year rule on a sale.
Honest swings. The smoothing in price indices is taken out, and whole years are resampled, so 2008–2013 can happen again.
The mortgage as it is. The payment is higher than the rent; the model counts the top-ups instead of hiding them.

What it cannot see

Asking, not closing prices. Buyers often pay a few percent less; the table above shows what 5% below asking is worth.
The price trend is a view. +3% a year is our judgement, and it decides most of the answer.
Health insurance on rent is left out: sources disagree on whether it is due.
Parking is in some listings' prices and rents and not in others; it roughly evens out but is not separated.
A refix after 5 years is outside the horizon; the rate risk starts when the fixation ends.

What to watch

The NBS mortgage rules from January 2027. The proposal lowers the cap for a third and later property (70% in the headline) and raises it to 90% for under-35 first buyers. Fewer investor mortgages, more first-home demand.
Gas and heat prices for 2027. European gas is about twice what the regulator assumed for 2026. Tenants pay energy, but it caps how much rent they can afford.
New supply. Asking prices for new builds rose about 3% in a year (CBRE), slower than older flats. A wave of completions in 2026–2027 would show first in rents.

Method and sources

Sources: Reality.sk listing snapshot (sale and rent, detail pages); Realitná únia realitný barometer (September 2026); Urbs developer database; NBS housing prices by region (2005–2021) and its Q2 2026 quick comment; Eurostat house price index (prc_hpi_q); mortgage rates from NBS-based reports (August 2026); Slovak income tax act §6(3), §9(1)(b), §8. Research, not investment advice.