NXT Lab · Research · Pending

Pending pages

Built and live, but not listed on the research page yet. Drafts: the numbers are real, the write-up may still change.

The US 30-year TIPS: 3% above inflation, seen from euros

The inflation-protected Treasury of February 2056: what it pays today, 150 years of US real yields and expected inflation, the real cost of capital against the earnings yield of US stocks, and a Monte Carlo for a euro investor, hedged and unhedged, after Slovak tax.

Draft · October 2026

A rented new-build flat in Bratislava, priced

A new 2-room flat in Ružinov or Petržalka, priced from every listing on offer today: the market by district, where the rent goes, flat prices since 2005 with the smoothing taken out, five years of paths bought with cash and with an 80% mortgage, what the answer hinges on, and how it compares with Bunds, gold and ETFs.

Draft · October 2026

Planet Labs: the order book, priced

The company that images the whole Earth every day, valued the same way as Theon: backlog, book-to-bill, operating leverage and a rule-of-40 exit multiple, five years in EUR after Slovak tax, with the convertible and stock pay counted.

Draft · October 2026

Theon International: the order book, priced

The Greek night-vision maker valued from its order book up: backlog, book-to-bill, a measured margin and one exit multiple, run as a five-year Monte Carlo in EUR after Slovak tax, with the Exosens stake and the acquisition debt kept separate.

Draft · October 2026

Portfolio mix: six assets, one covariance

Why two unrelated assets beat either one (a toy you can play with), then US and European stocks, semis, gold, euro bonds and bitcoin in EUR: correlation and covariance, a five-year Monte Carlo of every mix, the best mix and how much it depends on return guesses, and a build-your-own simulator.

Draft · October 2026