EXPERIMENTALExperimental model. The model is driven by the order book and rests on seven judgements, above all the future book-to-bill and the multiple the market pays in 2031. Change either and the numbers move a lot. Read them as scenarios, not forecasts. Not investment advice.
Theon International: the order book, priced
Theon makes night-vision goggles and thermal sights for NATO armies. It is profitable, growing fast and trades below every large defence peer, so the question is not whether the business is good. The question is what this price pays for. We built the answer from the order book up, with as few judgements as we could get away with.
The price since the 2024 listing, and five years of simulated paths
Price (history)Median path, dividends re-investedMiddle half of paths1 in 20 / 19 in 20
Source: Euronext Amsterdam close (Yahoo Finance); model: theon-eval, pathsnxtdev.sk NXTlab
What Theon is
A Greek company founded in 1997, listed on Euronext Amsterdam since February 2024. More than 270,000 of its systems are in service with armed forces in 72 countries, 26 of them in NATO. The core product is the image-intensifier night-vision goggle, now joined by thermal clip-ons, sights and, through acquisitions, gimbals, counter-drone sensors and ISR systems.
The order book did the heavy lifting. In 2025 orders were , three times revenue, mostly a multi-year OCCAR framework for European armies. The firm backlog now stands at , plus of options on top.
The margin is steady. Adjusted EBIT has been 25.8%, 26.2% and 26.2% (2024, 2025, H1 2026). Unlike Rheinmetall, the statutory profit is close to the adjusted one: net income was 74% and 70% of adjusted EBIT in 2024 and 2025.
It is buying growth with debt. Kappa Optronics, 9.8% of Exosens, Merio and HGH (counter-drone infrared, EV about EUR 300m, all debt). Net cash of EUR 127m at the end of 2025 becomes roughly EUR 0.5bn of net debt once HGH closes in early 2027.
A seventh of the market value is a stake in another listed company. The 9.8% of Exosens is worth at market. The model values it separately, so the business itself is priced at a P/E on 2026 profit.
Insiders own 70%. The free float is thin, which helps explain why a profitable company moves like a growth stock: about a year.
The model in five lines
Every year on every path:
orders = book-to-bill × revenue
backlog = last backlog + orders − revenue
revenue = conversion × backlog at the start of the year
profit = revenue × EBIT margin × (net / EBIT) − interest on new debt + HGH
price = (P/E × profit + Exosens stake) / shares
In a steady state that makes organic growth equal to (book-to-bill − 1) × conversion. A book-to-bill of 1.30 with 45% of the backlog delivered each year is about 13.5% growth, a little under management's "minimum 15%". The exit multiple slopes on the growth each path actually delivers, so "orders slow" and "the multiple shrinks" happen together instead of being two independent bits of bad luck.
Input
Value
Where it comes from
Measured inputs come straight from Theon's reports. Judgements are the only things we had to choose; the sensitivity table below changes each one on its own.
Revenue: reported, then simulated
ReportedModel median, with the 5th–95th percentile
Source: Theon reports (2026 = guidance midpoint); model incl. HGH from 2027nxtdev.sk NXTlab
Where the business ends up
Median of the paths, with the 5th to 95th percentile in brackets. EUR millions unless marked.
Year
Revenue
Orders
Backlog
Net income
EPS (EUR)
Net debt
What it returns
Five-year return a year, every path
Total return with dividends re-invested, before taxnxtdev.sk NXTlab
Held for
Expected value a year
Median a year
Worst 1 in 20 (total)
Best 1 in 20 (total)
What the answer depends on
Each row changes one judgement and re-runs the paths. Five-year total return before tax.
Change
Expected a year
Median a year
Chance of a loss
Beats
Median max drawdown
The same paths at a different price
Entry price (EUR)
Expected a year
Median a year
Chance of a loss
Beats
Strong and weak sides of this model
What it gets right
Revenue comes from orders already signed. The first two years are mostly the existing backlog, so they are close to measured.
Statutory profit, not adjusted. It charges interest on the acquisition debt, which puts it about 15–18% below the analysts' EPS. Most of that gap is the debt.
The Exosens stake is valued on its own, so fair-value gains on it cannot pass for operating profit.
One world per path. Weak orders, weak growth and a lower multiple arrive together.
What it cannot see
One customer group dominates. The OCCAR framework is a large share of the backlog; a cancellation or delay of that one programme is not modelled separately.
No new acquisitions after HGH and Merio, although management plans more. That cuts both ways: more growth, more debt.
Technology risk is not in it. Digital and thermal night vision could erode the image-intensifier tube; Theon is moving there, but the model assumes the margin holds.
Book-to-bill and the 2031 P/E are judgements. They decide most of the answer, as the table above shows.
What to watch
The Q3 2026 trading update (November). H1 book-to-bill was 0.93. Guidance is "above 1.0x" for the year, and the model needs about 1.3 on average. Two weak quarters in a row would move the answer more than anything else.
HGH closing (early 2027) and the refinancing cost of the bridge loan. At 7% instead of 5% the expected return drops by about a point a year.
Working capital. About 40% of every extra euro of sales is tied up in stock and receivables. If that does not fall, growth keeps eating the cash that should pay down the debt.
Method
Sources: Theon FY2025 preliminary results, 2025 annual report release (20 Apr 2026), Q2/H1 2026 trading update and H1 2026 report, HGH exclusivity release (Jun 2026); Euronext/Yahoo Finance prices, shares and analyst estimates; Exosens market value. Tax: Slovak rules for a listed share held over a year (time test). Research, not investment advice.